Category: Buying Advice

What to do when buying real estate in Lake Oswego, Oregon

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Distressed Homes and Home Owners

West Waluga Park
I know I wrote a post just recently about foreclosures and short sales, but a ton of new information has come to my attention. This information is really useful, so I decided to stay with the topic for this week.

Running the Numbers
I spent a little time looking more closely at just how foreclosures and short sales are impacting the market here in Lake Oswego. I easily figured out that the two types of distressed housing make up about 20% of the current listings. But what I got to thinking about was a more specific breakdown of the two, and finding out which are actually selling. Here is what I found:
* There are currently 548 properties for sale (these are including all residential: condos, town houses, and detached)
* There are currently 80 sales pending (offer accepted and in escrow)
* In the last 6 months 324 properties have sold and closed. At this rate, it will take it will take a little more than 10 months to sell the current inventory.
* There are 33 Bank foreclosures for sale (6% of the inventory), 17 are currently in escrow (21% of the properties in escrow), and 56 have sold in the last 6 months (which represents 17% of the closed transactions).
* There are 73 short sales currently in the inventory (13% of our LO market), 14 are pending sales that have not closed, and truthfully may never close (17% of the properties in escrow), and just 19 that successfully closed in the last 6 months (just 5% of actual, closed transactions).

I think I had a sense of this: that there are lots of short sales out there but that not a lot of them actually become a sold property. It is clear in the numbers. Short sales represent 13% of the inventory but just 5% of the sales. Whereas foreclosures represent just 6% of the inventory, but are 17% of the sales.

East Waluga Park

If you or someone you know is a distressed homeowner, pay attention NOW.

There is Federal stimulus money that has not yet been used. So far it feels like it’s all gone to the banks and been of little or no help to actual home owners. This is about to change. Beginning December 10th and ending in mid January, you can apply for mortgage payment help. The program is called MPA (Mortgage Payment Assistance). In Oregon 5000 households will receive help. Here is how it works. Go to www.oregonhomeownerhelp.org and apply. Applying for this help is going to be very similar to applying for a mortgage. You will have to submit bank statements, tax returns, etc. Households will be deemed qualified or not. All of the qualifying households will be entered into a lottery and names will be drawn. The 5000 house holds selected will have the Federal Government pay their mortgage payments for 12 months. The money will be considered a no-interest loan that is forgiven 20% per year for 5 years. So if you stay in your home for 5 years it will be 100% forgiven. There a lots more details, and I am not an expert. If you or someone you know needs this help, go to the website and get the information. Households can begin applying on December 10th.

I know the whole bailout is super controversial. But households in foreclosure is a tragedy that affects families, neighborhoods, and our entire economy.

Helpful Resources:
As part of my continuing education to renew my real estate license I took a 7-hour class yesterday on Short Sales and Foreclosures. While lots of good information was given out, I think I most appreciated getting come contact info for home owners who are financially distressed. Here are some good resources:
* You can find foreclosure avoidance counseling at www.hud.gov/foreclosure
* There are numerous scams preying on distressed homeowners. If you are tempted to hire services from a company who claims to be in a position to help you, check them out first by going to www.fanniemae.com/homeowners/beware-of-scams.shtm , www.ftc.gov/bcp/edu/puts/consumer/credit/cre42.shtm , or http://redtape.msnbc.com/2008/09/post.html
* Check out the Federal Government’s Making Home Affordable Program at http://MakingHomeAffordable.gov
* In Oregon check out www.foreclosurehelp.oregon.gov

Putting Things in Perspective
Every month households receive notices of foreclosure. These numbers are for the month of October 2010:
Clackamas County 1 in 402 households received this notice
In Las Vegas, in the same month, it was 1 in 6 households.

I hope you find this useful. Don’t hesitate to give myself or Linda a call if you have any questions.
Dianne

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More Market Data

  • A comparison of Sept ’10 and the previous month in Portland Metro shows an increase in Closed Sales of 1.3%
  • Average sales price in Portland Metro fell by 3.5% comparing  Sept. 2009 with Sept 2010.
  • Comparing the 3rd quarter of 2009 with 3rd quarter 2010, Closed Sales in Portland Metro dropped 24.7%
  • Comparing the 3rd quarter of 2009 with 3rd quarter 2010, Metro Listings increased by 1.2%
  • Average Metro Closed Price in Sept 2010 was $279,900
  • Average Lake Oswego/West Linn Closed Price in Sept 2010 was $432,200
  • Metro “Time on Market” for Sept 2010 was 131 days
  • Lake Oswego/West Linn “Time on Market” for Sept 2010 was 186 days
  • Metro Active Listings as of Sept 2010 was 14, 714
  • Lake Oswego/West Linn Active Listings as of Sept 2010 were 1,025
  • From Oct 1, ’09 to Sept 30 ’10, Lake Oswego/West Linn Average  Sale Prices declined by 9.3%
  • Portland Metro saw 1,399 Closed Sales in Sept. 2010
  • Lake Oswego and West Linn saw 71 Closed Sales in Sept 2010
  • All data derived from RMLS Market Action Report
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Foreclosure Freeze/Shortsales/Market Conditions

The news has been full of headlines about the new crisis in the mortgage industry, this time affecting foreclosures. So it seems like an opportune time to look at not only foreclosures, but also shortsales and the latest market update from RMLS.

The Foreclosure Freeze
There is now discussion that the foreclosure process, which has pretty much swamped the big lenders like Bank of America and Wells Fargo, has been mishandled. The accusation is that the paperwork involved in the foreclosures was often reviewed and processed by unqualified people and by people who did not read what they were signing. I do not know if this is true or not, but I do know that I have counseled people who are in foreclosure who have not only felt powerless, but have felt that the bank was not answering their letters, returning their phone calls, or being responsive. Obviously there is going to be anger for a person in this position. That combined with the current media coverage does make me feel that we will see litigation.

Gregor Watson, a principal with McKinley Partners, recently gave a best to worst case assessment of what this means:
Best case: this is only a technical glitch. It will require some re-tooling of the process, but the process will get back on track and foreclosures will resume. This is needed to allow the glut of foreclosures to work their way through the market and then be out of the inventory.
Medium case: people will enter into significant litigation that could take years to sort out. This could slow and extend the downturn of the housing market.
Worst case: the housing market is brought to a halt because Title Companies refuse to insure mortgages involving foreclosed homes. (This would not bring the entire market to a halt: simply the foreclosures. Still, a big problem)

On the positive side the Philidelphia Inquirer reported yesterday that Bank of America intends to begin resuming foreclosure proceedings stating that they have a legal right to do so despite accusations that documents used in the process are flawed. This bodes well for the possibility that the better scenario may result. We shall see….

Shortsales
When the whole shortsale phenomenon began a few years ago I will admit that I was a skeptic. It reminded me of the buy-a-house-with-credit-cards schemes. Just too simple to be true. Really? You could just ask your bank to forgive part of your mortgage so that you could sell it for less? Really? As time has gone by I have come to see that not only are shortsales here to stay, they are a significant part of the market.

I think shortsales do present remarkable opportunity, as do foreclosures. It allows a house to be sold for market value and not have an asking price that is based upon a value/debt that is several years old. But shortsales are not for everyone. I want to make if very clear that if you are a homeowner considering a shortsale, you need professional and legal advice far beyond the scope of what I am discussing here. So I want to directly address buyers.

The buyer best suited to benefit from a shortsale is the investor. This is because the shortsale is so uncertain and the process takes months. A buyer who is shopping for a home may have the patience for this, but is usually not in a position to wait 3-5 months and then learn that they lost the house to another bid or that the shortsale was not approved. Whereas an investor is not waiting with a moving truck full of furniture. If it works, it works. If not, that’s OK too. For the investor able to be patient, it can present real opportunity. I have personally seen several homes here in Lake Oswego that sold for values that made my jaw drop in the shortsale scenario. Just know what you are getting into.

Keeping it Local
Here in Lake Oswego we currently have an active listing inventory of 626 listings (condos and houses). Of those 37 are Bank-owned Foreclosures and 70 are shortsales. And this means that about 82% of the market is neither a foreclosure nor a shortsale. It’s a home owned by someone who is not in it upside down and who has perhaps even taken loving care of it. So there is a house out there for you whether you are an investor, a home buyer looking for a personal residence, or even a home buyer looking for a personal residence with the patience of an investor.

Also keeping it local, the latest RMLS Market Action Report offers the following information about area 147, which is Lake Oswego and West Linn Combined
Total active listings = 1025
Total pending sales = 84, a decrease of 24.3% over the same time one year ago
Average sales price = $432,200
Average days on the market = 186
Change in values over the same time last year = -9.3%
Change is closed sales, year to date = -22.3%

I consider myself to be a very positive person. The thing to do in this economy is look for how it can work in your favor. That may mean waiting, but that may also mean pouncing on opportunity. The subject today is pretty complex. Please contact Linda or myself for more information, to ask questions, or to get property information. We are here to be of help.
Dianne

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News & Notes

  • Mortgage Rates: One thing to remember about what you hear on the news is that good news for the economy in general means rates are going to rise for buying a house.  Bad news for the economy means rates stay where they are if they are low or get lower.  Here’s what MBS Quoteline is saying:  ” The Fed’s recent announcement that it may purchase additional Treasury securities (quantitative easing) to stimulate the economy has magnified the importance of economic news and increased daily volatility. Investors now evaluate each fresh piece of data in terms of its expected impact on Fed policy, and mortgage rates receive an extra benefit from weaker than expected data. In general, weaker economic growth leads to lower future inflation, which is favorable for mortgage rates. In addition, investors now expect higher levels of bond purchases by the Fed after weak data, and the increased demand also would be positive for mortgage rates. Of course, stronger than expected economic news will have the opposite effect and will push rates higher more quickly than usual.”
  • Selling Tip Of The Week: Color is important when selling your home.  I’m sure you’ve heard that it is good to use neutral tones on the walls, and your Realtor can advise you on the latest/most popular shades, but I’ve noticed that some people misinterpret “neutral”.  Neutral does not mean white.  I know that white is fun to play with tone on tone, but if you do too much white, it will make your home feel “cold” and people will have a difficult time “feeling the love”  : )     So, if you’ve got white walls that you think look realy clean and make your rooms look bigger, and off white or white carpet throughout…   you need to talk w/your Realtor about some light taupes or other schemes to bring some warmth into those rooms.
  • Buying Tip Of the Week: Pay attention to the garage in your new home.  What are you going to use it for?  I say there are two kinds of people… those who park in their garage and those who store “stuff” in it.  Does the garage in the home you’re contemplating meet your needs?  I recently had a Buyer about ready to write an offer when they realized that her beloved long-ish minivan would not fit in the garage.  Now she had a choice to make…  the home that fit the rest of the family’s needs… or the car?  In many older homes, garages were not made to fit the longer/larger vehicles of today.  So…  try your car out in the garage if you have any questions about it.  And if you have trouble squeezing it in, you might consider “carriage doors” that open out, as they are mounted on the outer side of the frame as opposed to the inner side which is where up & down sliding doors are mounted, thereby reducing your space.
  • “Should-I-Buy-Now-Or-Wait?-Calculator” – Here is a nifty tool from First American Title Company (came to me courtesy of Pam Edwards in the Clackamas Office… Thanks, Pam!). It allows you to calculate the difference between buying now & waiting… So, let’s say you found a home that is priced at $500,000.  You know rates are good now and are expected to rise, and/but you are thinking that maybe the house will come down in price (let’s say you think it may eventually come down to $450,000.) and so you are considering holding off on your offer.  This tool will allow you to punch in parameters and see just how much the picture would change if interest rates go up and your home lowers in value.  Pretty cool!  Here’s the link:  “Should-I-Buy-Now-Or-Wait?-Calculator” There are some additional tools there as well: Buy or Rent, for instance.

Very Best,

Linda

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News & Notes

About Town:

  • What would YOU lock in the vault?  That is what the city of Lake Oswego is asking residents.  On 10/10/10 the city will culminate the celebration of its Centennial with the burial of a time capsule.  Submission of ideas are due by 9/30 HERE.
  • The Foothills Dock is now open!  Ribbon cutting is set for… tonight!  9/30 at 5:30PM.
  • Dianne has given you a heads-up regarding the Lake Draw-Down.  The draw-down will be 22 feet according to the city’s site.  We’re warned of increased truck traffic during this time.  Refill will begin in January, 2011 and continue until May.  Here is a link which includes videos & information on what the lake will look like during the draw-down.
  • October 16 marks this year’s “Neighbors Helping Neighbors” event.  If you would like to contribute your time to helping with yard work, tree & shrub removal, trimming and more… or if you need help yourself, please call: 503 635 0257, or visit the site HERE.

Mortgage Updates from Pat Goodell of Academy Mortgage:

  • Fannie, Freddie and FHA have come out with new condo guidelines that are meant to make it easier for condos to be approved, and for buyers to be able to purchase a condo.
  • FHA will be changing the allowable amount sellers can pay for closing costs/pre-paids.  Currently at 6% and will go to 3% — no date set but expected by the first of the year.

Enjoy that summertime weather for the next few days!   It should be great for touring homes on Sunday.  I’ll be holding two of my listings Open in Lake Oswego on Sunday…. come & say hi!  More on that & the rest of the Open Houses for you on Saturday.

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Home Warranties

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Home Warranties have become increasingly popular in real estate transactions. This is for several reasons. First, it gives home buyers some assurance that during the first year of ownership, after they have already financially spent so much money buying the house, they are not going to be caught by surprise with unexpected repair expenses. Second, for sellers it gives them some assurance that their buyer will be happy in the first year of ownership. Statistically homes sold with warranties have a much lower rate of post-sale litigation. And, third, Realtors like warranties pretty much for the same reason that sellers do. Happy buyers are the goal and home warranties help that to happen.

The Basics
The way a warranty works is that it is purchased at closing for between $250 and $400, depending on the plan. It can be paid for by any party to the transaction: buyer of seller. Once the warranty is in place it will be in effect for a full year. During that year if any mechanics in the house break down, the new owner calls an 800 number to order repair service. The warranty company contracts locally with approved workers who then come to the house and perform the needed repair. The buyer then pays the service charge (typically about $50-$80) for the visit and all other costs are covered by the warranty. It really is a great program. On average these policies are used at least twice in the year that they are in place.

Please notice that I am describing the policy as covering the mechanics in the house: the furnace, water heater, dishwasher, garbage disposal, electricals, etc. It does not cover the structure itself: the roof, walls, foundation, etc. Most basic policies do not cover refrigerators, washers and dryers, or air conditioning, but these can be added to the policy for additional costs. Be sure to read your policy. Some also have limitations. For instance, it may cover up to $1500 for a furnace, but not cover costs over that amount. So know the limitations and compare policies before you buy one.

There are quite a few companies that offer these policies. American Home Shield is probably the most widely known. There is also the First American Home Buyers Protection Plan, Choice Home Warranty, and Fidelity National Home Warranty. I’m sure there are others as well.

My Word of Advice
I do think a home warranty is money well spent. However, I also caution that these policies put a lot of emphasis on repair, and, in my opinion, are not quick to replace truly warn out items. Here is what happened to me:

When I bought my current home I opted for a home warranty because the dishwasher was obviously in really bad shape. The seals around the door were shot and the machine leaked when it was used. The technician who serviced it estimated that it could be repaired for $300. Why would I want to put $300 into a dishwasher that would then still be old? They offered me a credit in the same amount to apply to a new dishwasher, which I took advantage of and was happy to receive. Then I had trouble with my furnace that winter. Again, I called the warranty company and my furnace was repaired. The furnace went out a second time, again it was repaired under the benefits of my warranty. A year went by and my policy expired. The following winter, again my furnace went out. This time, with no warranty to use, I called a company of my choice. This time the technician said my furnace was so bad it was unsafe to use and he red tagged it. I then replaced my furnace. In hindsight I wish that when my furnace had gone out the second time, while it was under warranty, that I would have gotten another opinion. I think the warranty company did full fill the obligation of the policy because they were able to get the furnace to work, but I also think that I could have had the policy assist with the furnace replacement if I had taken the time to do my own inquiry.

I do think that if you are a buyer or a seller you should consider a home warranty when you are involved in your next real estate transaction. At least ask the question as to whether it would benefit you or not. And, as always, listen to the advice of your Realtor.

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“How Are Things In The Market Right Now?”

“How Are Things In The Market Right Now?” Hmmm… I guess I’m writing more of a philosophical or “opinion piece” today. This is such an interesting question… I hear it every day in one form or another.  Often it is accompanied by “Things are pretty bad, aren’t they?  I hear they’re getting worse.” or “I’m ready to buy but think maybe I should wait till prices drop more.” or “I read that….”   All of these are motivated by a combination of media influence, a desire to make good decisions, and some good ‘ole car-wreck-neck-jerking thrown in.  We are all in the same boat, and Realtors have some inside knowledge that folks would like to have. The truth is, aside from offering some statistics (local, please), and some of what I’ve heard experts predicting, I always say the same thing… “I don’t really believe in statistics… in my own life anyway.”   Real Estate is like that as a profession.  You need a combination of faith, perseverance, and real skill to offer clients in order to achieve successful outcomes. I usually say ( in addition to the numbers or current trends I’m aware of), “Things are pretty good here in my world”.  What you really need to assess is:  How are things in your world?.

You’ll notice that there are fewer Realtors around than there used to be.  One thing you can be sure of; The Realtors who are in business right now are in business for a reason…  namely the three I outlined above. Talk to your Realtor, and begin to assess your own situation.

Is the market in the right shape for your purpose right now?    I don’t know- Ask yourself:

  • Are you needing a bigger home/Is your family growing etc?
  • Is there a change in your living- or relationship-status that necessitates some movement?
  • Are you being transferred in your job?
  • Would you really like to (or do you need to) downsize?
  • Is a change of schools for your kids in order?
  • Have you been wanting a real estate  investment opportunity?
  • Do your friends all live on the other side of town?

These are just a few of the reasons you might want to take advantage of the current really low prices, and really low interest rates. So… for those three variations on questions I get about the market:

  • Assess your own local market data, and talk to a mortgage broker about your own unique set of facts pertinent to your choice to act or not.  Then make the Right Decision for you based on more than rumors or innuendo.
  • As far as prices go… no one really knows for sure, but one thing is true: According to the experts, interest rates are not going lower….  So even if you wait for home prices to lower a little more (assuming they do… locally in the metro area , according to RMLS, sold prices increased from July2010  to August 2010 by 0.8%… & 1% from August ’09)   you will have negated any benefit by most likely settling for higher interest rates.
  • When reading or listening to news reports about real estate- “Consider the source”… and the subject matter.  Very often folks are hearing national information on the national news, and while that can be interesting in gauging where markets might be headed based on experiences in the past (what states declined first… what states followed in both negative and positive trends, and in what order…) the only really relevant information to your particular situation is local.  The adjunct to that of course is how that information intersects with your personal goals.

Read our Market Activity Report every Monday. Talk to your Realtor.  Talk to a Mortgage Broker.  Get the facts and then decide for yourself.  Life is happening everywhere… all at the same time!  : )  Don’t let fear and natural but morbid fascination with negative news stories run your life.  (That’s MY two cents!  : ) Very Best, Linda

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More Control Issues

I wrote a couple of weeks ago about what you have control over when Selling your home and what you do not.  I promised to address some “control issues” around Buying as well, and so here are a few thoughts:

Lenders:  Do you have control over whether you are approved to purchase a home that you fall in love with? Yes. When you begin your search for a new home, the first stop ought to be a good lender.  A decent percentage of home Buyers do not begin this way, and it is the source of much disappointment and frustration.  I often will take Sellers out looking for properties when I list their home on the market so that they can begin to get an idea of what they like & don’t like in a new home, (and it gives them the opportunity to see how other homes are presented… giving them *hopefully* an incentive to tidy theirs up and create a good showing : )  Very often these clients of mine poo poo talking to a lender before we venture out… they think they know about what they are approved for, and/or will tell me they talked w/someone awhile back who approved them for such & such.  I’ll admit to giving in at times to Buyers who have not yet been to a lender or who have not handed me an approval letter as yet, and I will tell you I have seen tears when people think they’ve found “the one” & then decide that’s a good time to talk to a lender. Here are some pointers:

  • Get the facts up front before you begin looking for properties.  That way you are only looking at homes you would be actually able to purchase. In any undertaking, you want to begin with facts so that you can make good decisions about how to proceed.
  • Don’t worry about taking a lender’s time before you have a property in mind.  This is what they do.  They are used to it.
  • Listen to your Realtor and any other qualified advisors when you are looking for a good lender.  Get a good referral.  You should have at least three from which to choose. ***The lender is the entity holding the most amount of control in the end stages of any mortgage transaction.  A lender who knows and works well with your Realtor will be inclined to nurture the process… especially in the end stages.  And one who is experienced and skilled will be able to field any last-minute issues that may arise so that you actually get to the completion of your transaction.

Negotiating – Do you have control of the negotiation process? Yes.

So, you’ve fallen in love with a property, and you are “countering” with the Sellers over various items.  Your job is to keep a cool head, and remember what is important to you.  Your Realtor will give you good advice on pros & cons of different options, and in the end, it is your decision how to proceed.  Remember your budget and look at the bottom line.  That said, also give some thought to how important a few dollars a month may or may not be to you if you are achieving other goals.  Remember… You’re in the driver’s seat. You get to decide what’s right or wrong for you.

Earnest Money or Promissory Note? – You make this decision too, and the one about how much it will be.  I advise my clients that the earnest money is their statement to the Seller reflecting their sincerity (earnestness : ) in wanting to purchase their home.  The Seller will be taking their home off of the market if they accept your offer, and so you are showing good faith, and in the event you do NOT abide by the contract you are, in essence, compensating them for taking their home off the market for you for a time.

An earnest money check always gives a better impression with an offer (and you are trying to get them to agree to accept your offer right?) than a promissory note. The exception to this would be if you are out of state and making an offer without the ability to hand your Realtor an earnest money check.  People tend to understand this circumstance.

Your earnest money goes toward the bottom line of your transaction, and is held by the escrow office as a neutral third party while your transaction is in process.    If, for instance, you find something during your inspection period that causes you to want to retract your offer, escrow will return your earnest money, and you can begin looking for another suitable property.  The contract also states that you must be able to get funding… so if you are not able to obtain funding through no fault of your own, you should receive your earnest money back as well.  If the home does not appraise for at least the sale price, and either you, the Seller, or both of you are unwilling to negotiate price or come to some other arrangement, you should receive your earnest money back. The only way to lose your earnest money, really, is to violate some term of the contract.  As long as you meet the time lines in the contract, and perform as you have agreed, your earnest money is safe.

Well, I hope that these tidbits were helpful.  That’s enough discussion of  “control issues” for now…  I’ve got to run and assist some fantastic Buyers in making some decisions of their own!

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A Market Snapshot

This morning’s Oregonian had a cover story on the decline of the housing market (such a nice story to wake up to). I thought it might be helpful if I localized the information and provided you with some stats.

Is our glass half empty? Or is our glass half full? Today I am comparing the inventory of various price ranges including what is currently for sale, what has sold in the last 6 months, and, in the case of detached homes, how that compares to the same time period a year ago:

Detached Houses
Price Range For Sale Now Sold in last 6 months Months of Inventory Sold in same 6 months of 2009
$100,000-$200,000 4 4 6 2
$201,000-$300,000 36 42 5 21
$301,000-$400,000 83 68 7 49
$401,000-$500,000 76 47 9 30
$501,000-$600,000 82 47 10 24
$601,000-$700,000 52 26 12 14
$701,000-$800,000 57 16 22 17
$801,000-$900,000 34 11 19 8
$901,000-$1,000,000 19 8 15 9
$1,001,000-$1,500,000 54 11 30 17
$1,501,000-$2,000,000 25 0 Indefinite 4
$2,001,000-$2,500,000 7 1 44 2
$2,501,000-$3,000,000 4 1 25 1
$3,001,000-$15,000,000 11 1 68 0
Condos
$50,000-$100,000 20 11 2
$101,000-$200,000 63 39 9
$201,000-$300,000 33 21 9
$301,000-$400,000 10 7 6
$401,000-$500,000 16 5 19
$501,000-$600,000 9 1 56
$601,000-$700,000 7 4 11
$701,000-$800,000 0 0 –
$801,000-$900,000 3 0 Indefinite
$901,000-$1,000,000 2 0 Indefinite
$1,001,000-$2,000,000 1 0 Indefinite
$2,001,000-$3,000,000 1 0 Indefinite

Observations on new construction:
As of today there are 42 listings for new homes that are listed in price from $449,900 to $3,700,000. In the last six months 11 new homes have been sold, the most expensive of which was for $965,000. There are currently 10 new homes listed for sale that are priced over $1,000,000. That is a huge reduction from 3 years ago when I recall counting them and finding over 100 homes that were new construction for sale priced at over $1,000,000. The builders are learning to work with this economy and are building their spec homes in much more affordable price ranges. There are a couple of new subdivisions in LO right now with home prices in the high 400’s and low 500’s.

My Observations
I think the most interesting bit of information I see in this is that the sales have actually increased substantially, although at lower prices. In the February to August time frame 199 houses sold in 2009 versus 283 that sold in 2010. That is a nearly 50% increase. Yes, some credit can be given to the tax credit that expired in June, but I think that there is another factor at play. As prices have come down, buyers who assumed that they previously could not afford Lake Oswego are now finding opportunities in homes that they can afford. The decline in prices is perhaps a boon to the LO housing market in general.

Another observation is that the condo market is really soft as the price goes up. Condos appeal to people seeking an ease of living with Home Owner’s Associations taking care of the yards and exterior maintenance, but another part of the condo market is people who buy into condos because they have been priced out of detached homes that they can afford. As detached home prices have come down, this has given buyers the opportunity to purchase a single family residence as opposed to a condo in the same price range. I see the condos that are currently for sale in the $700,000+ pricing and wonder just how many years it will be before they get an offer.

Highest and Lowest
The least expensive detached home currently for sale in LO is 912 square feet, built in 1963, with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. It’s priced at $180,000. The most expensive home is still the 5 acre, private island in Oswego Lake. With 13,500 square feet, 4 bedrooms, 6 full and 2 half baths, it was built in 1930 and is priced at $15,000,000.

I hope this information is helpful to you. Please let me know if you have any observations of your own.
Enjoy the day!
Dianne

Photo courtesy of bing.com

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Analyzing Market Trends

Foothills Park, Lake Oswego, Oregon

I think the most common question I am asked is “How’s business?”, which I think really means “What’s the market doing?”  In my circle of friends, homeownership is the norm.  And in today’s economy, everyone is hoping that their home is holding it’s value.  For my clients, they are wanting me to give them insight into the buying/selling climate.  So staying on top of trends is pretty critical.  Today I am going to break down the Lake Oswego market and give you some specifics.

First, some good news:  Lake Oswego, according to the latest market action report from the RMLS, has done the second best job of holding value in the metro area comparing May of  ’09 to May of ’10.  Values are down in Lake Oswego, year over year, 7.8%.  The only part of the metro area that did better was North Portland with a loss of 6.3%.  The worst faring area was Yamhill County, which is down 13%.  Wow, did I really just call that good news?  We are down 7.8%!  Perhaps the better way to see it is that this is less bad news than it could have been.

The average sales price in area 147, which is Lake Oswego and West Linn combined, is $443,500.  The total days on the market is averaging 153 days.

I think it is important to do this analysis by price range.  Watching our weekly market action reports, it is pretty obvious that the houses priced in the less expensive range, such as $600,000 or less, are selling much more actively than the houses in the higher prices.  Here is a breakdown by price:

Price Currently for Sale Sold in Last 6 Months # Per Month Length of Inventory
$1,000,000 + 105 15 3 42 months
$900,000-$1,000,000 19 4 1 28 months
$800,000-$900,000 50 6 1 50 months
$700,000-$800,000 42 12 2 21 months
$600,000-$700,000 53 21 4 15 months
$500,000-$600,000 74 35 6 12 months
$400,000-$500,000 79 43 7 11 months
$300,000-$400,000 60 60 10 6 months
$200,000-$300,000 29 36 6 4 months
$100,000-$200,000 3 2 0 9 months

At a glance, the idea is that the lower the length of inventory, the stronger that part of the market is. And that makes it easy to see that the lower the price on the house, the stronger the market. There are also two surprising quirks. Notice that the market inventory is actually worse in the $800,000-$900,000 price range than it is in the houses priced at $1,000,0000+. Why? I am thinking that part of the market is competing with the houses that are at $1,000,000 plus and that when buyers get up that high in price, it is still easy to justify pushing the purchase up just a bit more to get what they really want. In other words, there still is not enough of a value difference at $800,000 vs $1,000,000. However, that idea is just my speculation. I also think at $800,000 you are seeing a lot of older homes. They do have a hard time competing against the newer homes, which there are lots of, that have the soaring ceilings and palatial kitchens and baths. Second, the houses priced under $200,000 just aren’t selling fast either. I am quite certain that this is because at that price the house is pretty much a tear down and in such rough shape that the value is in the land. That means the buyer is going to be a builder and the builders are still sitting on so much inventory that they aren’t buying up the land.

I also have to say that the market is very balanced between buyers and sellers in the homes valued $300,000-$400,000 and even up into $400,000-$500,000. This part of the market is moving well with homes coming onto the market and selling respectably within reasonable periods of time. If you are buying in this part of the market, and the house is in nice condition, be aware of values. If it’s priced right, it’s going to sell and your buying power is not as strong as it would be in the higher price ranges.

And for those of you in the upper pricing, you are still in a very strong buyer’s market. Sellers are still competing with way too many other houses. You should be able to negotiate hard on price and terms.

Affordable Houses: LO vs Sellwood
I periodically like to compare affordable houses in Lake Oswego to the same houses in Sellwood, a neighborhood I used to live in not too far away in SE Portland. I like to do this because I remain convinced that Lake Oswego is often overlooked by buyers who are seeking affordable housing. This is because of LO’s reputation as a wealthy community. Time and again I have been able to prove that there are more homes to choose from in LO than in Sellwood that are affordable. Today is no different. Affordable, by my definition, are homes price below $350,000.

As of today, there are currently 61 homes for sale in Lake Oswego priced below $350,000. The least expensive is a 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bath house with 1000 square feet and a single car garage that was built in 1957. It is actually in pretty nice condition,although close to I-5, and it is priced at $189,000. In Sellwood there are 19 houses priced under $350,000. The least expensive is a 2 bedroom, 1 bath house with a single car garage that was built in 1920. It has 838 square feet + 810 square feet in an unfinished basement. It’s priced at $234,500.

I think the most burning question today is what is going to happen to the market now that the tax credit is over. I do think that there was a huge boost in the market by people trying to get into escrow by the end of April. I also know that May was slow for me, as far as new business. However, June has got my phone ringing and I am very busy. So my personal observation is that our normal spring/summer upswing is happening. Time will tell.

Yours, Dianne