LO Housing Snap Shot

I get a kick out of looking at statistics. If you have been reading the blotter for a few years, you’ll also know that I like to do a comparison of most expensive in LO versus least expensive. LO is known for expensive, lake-front homes. However, that is not the definition of Lake Oswego real estate. There is actually quite a wide variety of house values in Lake Oswego. With all of this in mind, I decided to put together a reference chart so that you and I can both see the last 8 years market activity, based upon price range.

I took some liberties here. I lumped the expensive inventory into $2,000,000+. I also lumped the less expensive inventory into $100,000-$300,000. In both cases I did this because there just simply isn’t a lot of houses at either extreme of the spectrum. In between I broke it down into $100,000 increments, but for the sake of time, stopped at $700,000. I may go back and look at the $700,000 to $2,000,000, but that would be in another post.

One last liberty that I took: I did a 2013 January to July and then using that number, projected the full year. There are lots of variables that could affect this final number, so this one is pretty speculative.

These are all single-family, detached homes and not condos.

Here is what I found:

Homes Priced $2,000,000 to $30,000,000 Homes Priced $400,000 to $500,000
2013 1st Six Months/Projected 3/6 2013 1st Six Months/Projected 75/150
2012 7 2012 108
2011 4 2011 86
2010 3 2010 86
2009 8 2009 74
2008 3 2008 74
2007 12 2007 112
2006 7 2006 135
Homes Priced $600,000 to $700,000 Homes Priced $300,000 to $400,000
2013 1st Six Months/Projected 40/80 2013 1st Six Months/Projected 70/140
2012 47 2012 125
2011 45 2011 124
2010 39 2010 113
2009 36 2009 105
2008 46 2008 74
2007 69 2007 94
2006 79 2006 94
Homes Priced $500,000 to $600,000 Homes Priced $100,000 to $300,000
2013 1st Six Months/Projected 53/106 2013 1st Six Months/Projected 39/78
2012 92 2012 130
2011 59 2011 111
2010 76 2010 79
2009 51 2009 51
2008 52 2008 12
2007 97 2007 13
2006 97 2006 21

Here are some of my personal observations:

Those $2,000,000+ houses were selling pretty well before the recession with 12 sold in 2007. They dropped off a bit in the recession, but look at 2009. In the depth of the recession more were sold than were sold in 2006, a peak boom year. 2013 we are on track to be about where we were at in 2012. This market feels stable, to me, but not a sellers market by any shape of the imagination.

In the $600,000 to $700,000 range the market demand dropped by 50% from 2006 to 2009. This price range suffered during the recession. My projection for 2013 puts this price range demand right back where it was pre-recession.

The $500,000 to $600,000 range dropped by nearly 50% between 2006 and 2009, but looking at 2012 and at my projection for 2013, the demand for this price range appears to have recovered.

In the $400,000 to $500,000 range there was a 50% drop in demand from 2006 to 2009. My projection for this year puts the demand at 110% of what it was in 2006. This price range is in high demand.

In the $300,000 to $400,000 range the market is pants on fire. In 2006 94 houses sold in this price range, in 2012 125 sold, and my projection for 2013 is 140. The catch here is that prices are going up so this inventory is shrinking. There may not be enough new listings in this range to meet the demand and so the projection I have done will probably be restricted by lack of homes available.

In the $100,000 to $300,000 range there are only 5 properties currently for sale. In 2006 just 21 homes sold for under 300K. I find this part really interesting. Even in this super affordable part of the Lake Oswego market, in the depth of the recession, there was a fall off of demand. 2008 had just 12 houses sold: anemic for sure. Then look at 2009 and 2010. These were the years of the “first-time home buyer incentive” that was part of the Federal stimulus deal. From 2008 to 2009 there was a 400% increase in sales in this price range. In 2012 130 homes were sold in Lake Oswego for under $300,000. This part of the market is a sellers paradise. This year there have been 39 sales. If I projected the same level of demand to the end of the year that would mean 78 sales. The catch? There are only 5 active listings under $300,000. So that is not going to happen. And the reason there were so few sales in 2006 in this price range? It wasn’t because there was a lack of demand. It was because there was a lack of inventory. So this part of the market has recovered very nicely, indeed.

This brings me back to my original curiosity. What is the most and least expensive house currently for sale in LO?

At a modest price of $9,998,000 you can buy a 13,462 square foot, main-lake home. It features 5 bedrooms, 6 full baths, and 2 half baths. Built in 2009 it has every modern amenity you could imagine.

At a slightly more modest price of $225,000 you can buy at 1050 square foot home on a slightly-busy street. It features 3 bedrooms and 1-full bath. Built in 1920 it has a carport and is on a nice sized lot.

I hope you found this enlightening. Statistics can be fun.