Local Area Trends- According to the latest RMLS Market Action Report, comparing November 2010 with December 2010, a few interesting facts emerge- Average Sales Price increased in the Portland Metro area by 2.2%, and Closed Sales increased by 14.3% which is the highest monthly level since June.
Rates- There is some indication that this increase was due to interest rate swings which may have persuaded uncertain buyers to take action. After remaining for weeks at historic lows, rates jumped for a short time to over 5%. They have since gone back down again to about 4.75% but the temporary increase may have convinced buyers that low rates won’t be around forever. According to MBS Quoteline, the volatility of rates which has surfaced in the first weeks of the new year is of course due to shifting economic factors. Prior to Friday’s Employment report, nearly all the economic data was stronger than expected which impacted mortgage rates negatively. Rates improved after the employment data though, and ended the week nearly unchanged.
Pat Goodell of Academy Mortgage says:
The Monthly Inflation reports and Retail Sales reports were not as strong as hoped so rates have stabilized below 5%. But all indications are that there will be stronger economic data coming out in the next few months which will impact rates negatively again. There is no reason to expect that rates will continue to be as low as they currently are and most expectations are that by the 2nd half of the year, they will have increased to over 5% again.
Portland Metro’s “Grade” To Improve?- The mortgage insurance companies identify cities according to their “risk” of declining values. One mortgage insurance company just upgraded 18 cities nationwide (and downgraded 3). They made no change to Portland yet but it’s a positive sign that they are seeing stronger values in 18 cities nationwide and one mortgage insurance rep did say he expects to see Portland upgraded in the near future.
The market activity for Lake Oswego last week was really, really interesting. The last time I did this report, two weeks ago, it reflected the sales for the 2-week holiday period. What caught my eye at that time were that a pretty solid number of houses had sold in the midst of the holidays. Then this last we we had 14 houses go pending, but only 4 new listings come onto the market. That is a huge change from what we have been seeing for some time. Three times more houses went pending last week than came onto the market. If this continues it will shrink the inventory and stabilize prices. It us way too soon to call it any kind of a trend, but it makes me eager to see if it continues.
Along with 4 new listings and 14 pending sales, we had 4 closed transactions.
I also have several observations:
—At my open house on Sunday I had 9 showings. I am happy if I get 2 or 3. And these were not neighbors. I always chat with people to see what their situation is. 8 of the 9 were buyers currently in the market and looking for a home.
—Combine that with the fact that of the 14 pending sales in our report below, 11 are listed at $303,000 or less. What I sense is that the low end of the market is taking off. There has been lots of media chatter about the possibility that the National market has hit bottom. I think people are listening and feeling like the time to buy is now: certainly in the lower end houses.
—Condos are selling well as part of that lower-end inventory. The condos at Oswego Terraces that have been for sale since 2007, languishing in this economy, have had drastic price reductions and that is making them move. Of the 14 pending sales, 3 are in this complex. That has been true for a couple of weeks now. The condos are now priced at a point where buyers like what they see.
See below for further details according to RMLS:
NEWLY LISTED (Jan 10-16, 2011)
Address
Price
Type
BR
Bath
Sq Feet
200 Burnham Rd #102
$149,000
Condo
1
1
820
18523 Hallberg Ct
$234,900
Detached
3
1.5
1307
6025 Carmen Dr
$249,950
Detached
3
1.5
1346
18084 Westminster Dr
$769,900
Detached
5
3.5
5020
PENDING SALES (Jan 10-16, 2011)
Address
Price
Type
BR
Bath
Sq. Feet
CDOM
16250 Pacific Hwy #63
$99,000
Condo
2
2
1311
1206
16250 Pacific Hwy #77
$110,000
Condo
2
2
1327
1208
200 Burnham Rd #202
$119,000
Condo
2
2
1314
1205
12511 Boones Ferry Rd
$159,000
Detached
3
2
1625
137
3854 Botticelli St
$185,000
Condo
2
1.5
1132
151
5670 Kenny St
$189,000
Detached
3
2
936
139
44 Oriole Ln
$220,000
Detached
3
2.5
224
105
240 4th St
$269,150
Detached
2
1.5
1080
49
4281 Chapman Way
$285,000
Detached
3
2.5
2010
81
17614 Schalit Way
$303,900
Detached
3
2
1561
32
18006 Gimley Ct
$549,900
Detached
5
4
3225
201
1579 Bay View Ln
$639,000
Detached
4
3
4865
33
2607 Palisades Crest Dr
$760,000
Detached
4
4.5
5650
244
SOLD (Jan 10-16, 2011)
Address
Orig. Price
Sold Price
type
Sq. Feet
CDOM
74 Greenridge Ct
$289,900
$248,350
Attached
2868
92
16942 Cherry Crest Dr
$410,000
$400,000
Detached
2363
11
13888 Shireva Dr
$519,900
$430,000
Detached
3756
166
548 Ridgeway Rd
$650,000
$650,000
Detached
2830
443
Criteria:Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings
It is January… ready, set go! 29 houses open on Sunday in Lake Oswego. Bring your umbrella and have a ball!
My listing on Lamont Way is Open from 1-3. Dianne will be there and would LOVE to meet some of our Property Blotter readers in person! It’s a truly unique house that is private, has an artistic edge (with space for a studio), and perfect for someone looking for a house that is not “cookie cutter”. The property on Kilkenny Drive in Palisades is a great one to see also- lots of space w/ gorgeous landscape features, updates and a great view. It is Open from 12-3.
Lots and lots of great houses on tour!
Here is what is being held Open according to RMLS:
Real Estate 101 says that you have four factors to consider when selling your home: price, condition, terms, and location. You have no control whatsoever over the location. You do have control over the price, the condition, and the terms. When getting a house ready to put it onto the market you do want to get it into top-notch condition, particularly in this economy. A shabby or dirty house is hard to sell because the investors have taken a beating and aren’t flipping homes in great numbers, and owner-occupied buyers rarely want to take on projects. Terms can attract a buyer and involve you paying closing costs or perhaps even offering a private contract. This can save a buyer thousands of dollars and will certainly make your home more marketable and perhaps even get you a higher price. Having said that, in my opinion the queen who wears the crown in this group is price. Price appeals at every level. It corrects flaws that you can not change if you are in an undesirable location, it makes a fixer house attractive because it is a bargain, it appeals to buyers who would otherwise want terms because it is an obvious value, and it gets your home attention across the entire market. It will make your home sell.
I am not advocating that you need to give your home away. I also realize that you can only sell within a range that you can afford. If your mortgage is greater than the current value, you need to do a shortsale to get it to be priced right to sell it. So, yes, price has its limitations. Do not get mixed up into this equation your need to pay off credit cards or take that luxury cruise you dream about. The value of your home has nothing to do with your credit card balances.
So how to price it?
First, don’t take it personally. The market sets the price and you don’t. Buyers are really, really smart. They shop and compare and figure out value. When you are priced right, they will see the value and they will make an offer. This is something you do have control over. You can work with your Realtor to do the same calculations in the current market to figure out your home’s value. Once you know that, please do not be offended.
Second, your home’s value is based upon closed sales and not active listings. When a home in your neighborhood is listed for sale you likely look it up on-line or pick up a flier from out front. You see the asking price and that tends to stick in your head. After the home sells there is not much advertising about what it actually closed for. You are not likely to know if the final price was less than the asking price or if the seller paid concessions such as closing costs. This means that when the Realtors you interview come to meet with you to discuss your home, you may have an inflated idea of what it is actually worth. Be prepared to learn what actual sales prices have been. It is these prices that you need to use to calculate the value of your home.
Third, avoid the temptation to tack on a few thousand dollars to “leave room for negotiating”. This is like tacking on 6 months to realize a lower final sales price. Seriously, in this market even a few thousand dollars extra will put buyers off. When your house seems like it is a higher price to other homes, why should buyers bother with it? And think about it: the houses that sold in your neighborhood also had to pay closing costs and do repairs to satisfy their buyers. No matter where you price it you will be negotiating. I do want to point out that a well priced home is more likely to sell quickly and at or near the asking price. When a buyer asks how long has it been on the market, and they hear just a week or so, they know that they can’t haggle you down because you aren’t ready for it. But when a house has been on the market in excess of 60-90 days, they know that they are going to go in low. So pricing it right will get you better offers, more quickly.
Last, pay attention to what the market tells you when you do list it. Are you getting showings? If you aren’t, you need to do something. I tell my sellers that it takes about 20 showings to get an offer. If you get only 1 showing in the first 30 days then you have got a long and slow road ahead. If you get 10 showings in the first month then you are going to get an offer in the next few weeks. That is how it works. It’s not rocket science. Don’t wait to make changes. Pay attention and be responsive. I also recommend that you be in communication with your Realtor to find out what they are hearing. They can get feed back after showings and also during the Realtor Broker’s Open House. They can then share with you what they are hearing. This can be helpful with correct pricing and also with finding flaws that you and your Realtor did not foresee, such as leaving a light on in a dark corner or re-arranging furniture.
There is a buyer for every house. Be smart. Be pro-active. Make the market work for you.
The sun is supposed to be peaking out & there are 22 houses scheduled to be held open this Sunday. One is my listing at 979 Devon Lane. Come see me from 1-3PM & enjoy a great tour of homes!
Last week brought 7 new listings, 6 pending sales, and 8 closed sales to Lake Oswego.
New December 13-19, 2010
Address
Price
Type
BR
Bath
Sq Feet
16250 Pacific Hwy #81
$99,000
Condo
1
1
841
790 Boca Ratan Dr
$249,900
Detached
3
2
2112
12808 SW Boones Ferry
$279,000
Attached
3
2.5
1174
1635 Village Park Ln
$649,000
Detached
4
3.5
3338
727 Laurel St
$650,000
Detached
4
3.5
2924
1309 Horseshoe Curve
$849,000
Detached
4
3
3087
14062 Goodall Rd
$979,950
Detached
3
3.5
3887
Pending Dec. 13-19, 2010
Address
Price
Type
BR
Bath
Sq. Feet
200 Burnham Rd #204
$119,000
Condo
2
2
1313
4438 Thunder Vista Ln
$169,900
Condo
2
2.5
2040
19211 Marlin Ct
$225,000
Detached
3
2.5
2091
19167 Longfellow
$279,000
Detached
3
2.5
1782
17952 Cardinal Dr
$304,900
Detached
3
2
1702
13888 Shireva
$475,000
Detached
4
3
3756
Sold Dec. 13-19, 2010
Address
Orig. Price
Sold Price
type
Sq Feet
CDOM
5057 Foothills Dr C
$189,900
$179,000
Condo
1252
9
17335 Ashley Ct
$294,900
$244,000
Attached
2161
83
32 Churchill Downs
$448,250
$350,000
Detached
3016
272
2602 Orchard Hill Pl
$409,900
$399,000
Detached
2568
44
4685 Upper Dr
$600,000
$500,000
Detached
3341
68
17555 Redfern
$749,900
$583,000
Detached
3007
256
3943 Tempest
$669,000
$599,000
Detached
3714
119
3155 Douglas Circle
$985,000
$915,000
Detached
4517
146
Criteria:Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings
Moving into the full logistics of the holidays, market activity slowed down significantly last week. We had 7 new listings, 2 pending sales, and 6 closed sales.
We receive a weekly accounting of lockbox activity every Monday. It consists of a tally of the number of times that lockboxes were opened and the percentage change from the week prior. Last week saw a 39% decrease. So showings are way down. Having said that, I always like to point out that while there may be fewer buyers out looking, those that are doing so at the holidays are serious buyers. People don’t take the time to look at this time of year unless they are motivated to buy.
See below for further details:
NEWLY LISTED (Nov 29-Dec 5, 2010)
Address
Price
Type
BR
Bath
Sq Feet
4000 Carman Dr #108
$109,900
Condo
1
1
767
4305 Silver Ct
$339,000
Attached
3
2.5
1835
4198 Glacier Lily St
$389,000
Detached
4
3
2806
17 Hidalgo
$429,000
Detached
4
3.5
3428
1217 Tyndall Ct
$699,000
Detached
4
4
5181
15622 Fieldstone Dr
$725,000
Detached
3
2.5
3113
582 9th St
$838,950
Detached
2
3.5
2841
PENDING SALES (Nov 29-Dec 5, 2010)
Address
Type
Price
BR
Bath
Sq. Feet
156 Greenwood Rd
Detached
$309,900
2
2
3722
4114 Casey Ct
Detached
$785,000
4
2.5
3405
SOLD (Nov 29-Dec 5, 2010)
table >
Address
Orig. Price
Sold Price
type
Sq Feet
CDOM
692 2nd St
$299,000
$255,000
Detached
1700
213
5188 Madrona St
$549,000
$514,500
Detached
3183
36
1704 Glenmorrie Terr.
$599,000
$575,000
Detached
3885
124
5001 Denton Dr
$759,000
$753,000
Detached
3303
2
14089 Edenberry Dr
$840,000
$840,000
Detached
3276
0
15446 Boones Way
$998,500
$936,000
Attached
3364
84
Criteria:Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings
There are 28 houses scheduled to be help open this Sunday. I am impressed! Local Realtors sure are not taking it easy just because it’s the holidays.
Be sure to stop by and see Linda at her open house at 979 Devon. It is a fantastic property that is a standout in the market. Not only does it have 4 bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths for $449,900, but it has been tastefully updated with granite, sub zero, new heat pump and hot tub as well. And to top it off: sweeping Mt. Hood views. This is a very special house. The floor plan allows for 1 bedroom and a full bath to be in a separate apartment. So the layout is ideal for someone who wants separate guest quarters or perhaps a home office that is its own space. I know LInda would love to meet you in person. She’ll be there from 2 to 4pm.
West Waluga ParkI know I wrote a post just recently about foreclosures and short sales, but a ton of new information has come to my attention. This information is really useful, so I decided to stay with the topic for this week.
Running the Numbers
I spent a little time looking more closely at just how foreclosures and short sales are impacting the market here in Lake Oswego. I easily figured out that the two types of distressed housing make up about 20% of the current listings. But what I got to thinking about was a more specific breakdown of the two, and finding out which are actually selling. Here is what I found:
* There are currently 548 properties for sale (these are including all residential: condos, town houses, and detached)
* There are currently 80 sales pending (offer accepted and in escrow)
* In the last 6 months 324 properties have sold and closed. At this rate, it will take it will take a little more than 10 months to sell the current inventory.
* There are 33 Bank foreclosures for sale (6% of the inventory), 17 are currently in escrow (21% of the properties in escrow), and 56 have sold in the last 6 months (which represents 17% of the closed transactions).
* There are 73 short sales currently in the inventory (13% of our LO market), 14 are pending sales that have not closed, and truthfully may never close (17% of the properties in escrow), and just 19 that successfully closed in the last 6 months (just 5% of actual, closed transactions).
I think I had a sense of this: that there are lots of short sales out there but that not a lot of them actually become a sold property. It is clear in the numbers. Short sales represent 13% of the inventory but just 5% of the sales. Whereas foreclosures represent just 6% of the inventory, but are 17% of the sales.
East Waluga Park
If you or someone you know is a distressed homeowner, pay attention NOW.
There is Federal stimulus money that has not yet been used. So far it feels like it’s all gone to the banks and been of little or no help to actual home owners. This is about to change. Beginning December 10th and ending in mid January, you can apply for mortgage payment help. The program is called MPA (Mortgage Payment Assistance). In Oregon 5000 households will receive help. Here is how it works. Go to www.oregonhomeownerhelp.org and apply. Applying for this help is going to be very similar to applying for a mortgage. You will have to submit bank statements, tax returns, etc. Households will be deemed qualified or not. All of the qualifying households will be entered into a lottery and names will be drawn. The 5000 house holds selected will have the Federal Government pay their mortgage payments for 12 months. The money will be considered a no-interest loan that is forgiven 20% per year for 5 years. So if you stay in your home for 5 years it will be 100% forgiven. There a lots more details, and I am not an expert. If you or someone you know needs this help, go to the website and get the information. Households can begin applying on December 10th.
I know the whole bailout is super controversial. But households in foreclosure is a tragedy that affects families, neighborhoods, and our entire economy.
Putting Things in Perspective
Every month households receive notices of foreclosure. These numbers are for the month of October 2010:
Clackamas County 1 in 402 households received this notice
In Las Vegas, in the same month, it was 1 in 6 households.
I hope you find this useful. Don’t hesitate to give myself or Linda a call if you have any questions.
Dianne
Thanksgiving Week Lake Oswego saw 7 New listings, 8 Pending sales, and 6 Closed sales according to RMLS.
I notice that there are several properties re-entering the market after several months. The one on Cardinal is described as a total remodel, and I am looking forward to seeing it in particular! “Cumulative Days on Market” seems to have leveled out a bit with a few exceptions.
See below for further details:
NEWLY LISTED (Nov 22-28, 2010)
Address
List Price
# Beds
# Baths
Total SF
Prop Type
16546 BONAIRE AVE
$219,900
3
1
1064
DETACHD
72 GREENRIDGE CT
$224,900
2
3
1825
ATTACHD
240 4TH ST
$289,000
2
1.1
1080
DETACHD
16942 CHERRY CREST DR
$410,000
4
2.1
2363
DETACHD
17471 CARDINAL DR
$899,900
4
3.1
2636
DETACHD
3136 DOUGLAS CIR
$968,950
4
3.1
4132
DETACHD
17787 KELOK RD
$1,079,900
3
2
3085
DETACHD
PENDING SALES (Nov 22-28, 2010)
Address
List Price
# Beds
# Baths
Total SF
Prop Type
CDOM
668 MCVEY AVE 14
$99,000
1
1
627
CONDO
123
18244 PILKINGTON RD
$254,900
3
1.1
1200
DETACHD
35
2000 GREENTREE RD
$349,000
4
3
2548
DETACHD
135
864 6TH ST
$350,000
5
2.1
2403
DETACHD
182
1600 WOODLAND TER
$399,000
3
2
1674
DETACHD
115
4859 SAGE HEN WAY
$415,000
4
3
2417
DETACHD
215
611 IRON MOUNTAIN BLVD
$510,000
2
1
1322
DETACHD
149
610 CABANA LN
$895,000
3
2
1729
DETACHD
108
SOLD (Nov 22-28, 2010)
Address
O/Price
Close Price
# Beds
# Baths
Total SF
Prop Type
CDOM
100 KERR PKWY 23
99990
90000
1
1
617
CONDO
179
3433 MCNARY PKWY 408
124900
113500
2
2
1008
CONDO
49
200 BURNHAM RD 404
264000
115000
2
2
1325
CONDO
1119
17787 BLUE HERON DR
469950
445000
4
3
2448
DETACHD
59
13596 STREAMSIDE DR
579900
562000
4
2.1
3430
DETACHD
129
2111 HAZEL RD
1089000
991200
4
4.1
4894
DETACHD
382
Criteria:Homes in the 97034 and 97035 zip code, listed, pending or sold between the dates listed above as reported by the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS). DETACHD refers to Single Family Detached Residence, MFG refers to manufactured housing, and ATTACHD refers to single-family residences with some portion of the structure attached to another property, but not constituting CONDO ownership. DOM stands for days on market, or the number of days from when the listing became active and when it received an acceptable offer, with CDOM standing for “cumulative days on market” accounting for “refreshed” listings
